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Stock Upside Trade and Breakout

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***** Disclaimer: This is NOT investment advice, just general help and opinions, please check with a registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. This document may contain errors. Chapman Advisory Group LLC employees are not investment advisors. Please review http://www.stockconsultant.com/disclaimerpage.html

Topics:

Upside Trade Indicators
Upside Trade Tips
A trading system based on high profit/loss ratios and diversification
Breakout Trade
Breakout Trade Tips

Upside Trade Indicators

Provide upside trade information to gauge the quality and profit for short term long trades(3 days to 6 weeks).

Upside Indicator	Information
Trade Quality	An indicator that analyzes Target 1 profit, potential and profit/loss ratio. Good Trade Quality means there is good target 1 profit and potential along with a high profit/loss ratio (a tight stop limit is available).
Target 1	Target 1 is a stock price that a typical short term rally may achieve. These typical rallies can last anywhere from 3 days to 6 weeks in duration and occur approximately 6 to 12 times a year. The Target 1 percent profit is also listed.
Stop Limit (Stops)	The stop limit price is provided along with the percent loss from the current stock price. A stop limit is either a mental or automatic (placed with a broker) sell order placed below the current stock price to limit loss. Stop limits are only adjusted in one direction (up) and trails the current stock price.
Profit/Loss Ratio	The Profit/loss Ratio indicator is the ratio of Target 1 profit divided by the stop limit loss. Higher profit/loss ratios above 2.5:1 signify higher quality trades.
Target 1 Potential	Analyzes resistance areas that block the rally to Target 1 and helps the investor gauge if Target 1 is possible. It may be unreasonable to expect a stock to reach the Target price (low potential) if blocked by one or more strong double or triple resistance areas.
Target 1 Resistance	Lists the resistance areas between the current stock price and Target 1.
Target 2	Target 2 is a stock price which may reached on an extreme rally which occurs only 5% of the time or approximately 1-2 times every 6 months. A stock rarely remains at Target 2, some investors may want to sell at Target 2 to lock in good short term profits.

Upside Trade Tips

Stop limits can be used as a tool to lock in profit when adjusted daily to trail the stock price as it moves higher. This removes the decision on "When do I sell?" while maximizing short term profit.
The Target 1 potential drops significantly when strong double or triple resistance areas exist midway between the current stock price and Target 1.
The Targets 1 and 2 may be exceeded on very strong rallies that occur over a short time frame. On slow up trending stocks the Target's 1 and 2 will track higher with the trend.
Stop limits are typically left loose upon going long at the start of a rally, then as the rally progresses the stop limits are tightened. If the stock reaches Target 2(extreme rally and/or extremely overbought) one should set a very tight stop limit to lock in short term profit.
Beware of temporary gaps down in the morning from triggering your stop and stealing your shares.
Stop limits should be tightened after 3 days of flat stock price movement.
If a stock has a good rally but then is flat for 3 days then one should be able to tighten the stop limit. If after 3 days no attempt has been made to move higher then a resistance area will have formed and the stock may be in danger of pulling back at that time. At this point two possibilities exist: it will move higher and you will profit from a future rally or you will lock in good profits on any weakness. This also can be applied to buying stocks on a pullback to support. If after 3 days no strength is seen then the stock may be in danger of continuing lower and tightening the stop limit will lower losses.

A trading system based on high profit/loss ratios and diversification

A powerful trading system can be developed based on trades with high profit/loss ratio's of at least 3:1 and diversification into 8 to 12 positions.
This combination of diversification and high profit/loss ratio's may mean that overall you have to correct only 33% of the time to breakeven. This is based on a typical 15% profit, 3:1 profit/loss ratio, 5% stop limits, and diversification into 10 positions with a constant $ loss (see note below).
Finding stocks with even better profit/loss ratio's, and being more aggressive on stop limits by adjusting them to at least breakeven once a stock moves may mean overall you have to be correct only 16% of the time to break even.
With such a robust trading system (solid foundation) the house becomes stacked in your favor and your long term profits rely less on the accuracy of your trading picks and more lenient on trading mistakes.
To keep a constant dollar loss amount over all your 8 to 12 positions set the base loss % and trade amount in the Upside Recalc tool and to calculate the risk trade amount and number of shares.

Breakout Trade

Breakouts are quick rallies that occur when a stock breaks through a resistance area. Typically the next resistance will be far away (or a new high area) giving the stock room to rally.
A stock usually starts to rally and breakout once it moves above a trigger price. This trigger price is typically close to the upper edge of the current resistance area.
Upon breakout stock can be expected to reach the breakout target price. Also listed is the stop limit and profit/loss ratio for the breakout.
Breakouts vary in how quickly they rally and reach the breakout target.
- True Breakouts are the strongest breakouts made from type Double or higher resistance areas and their rallies typically last only 3 to 5 days.
- Continuation Breakouts are made from type Single resistance areas and their rallies typically last longer at 1 to 3 weeks.
Breakouts fall into three categories depending on their state:
- WATCH: A watch breakout is currently stuck at resistance and may breakout.
- CONFIRMED: A confirmed breakout is a stock that has started to breakout and is above it's trigger price and resistance area.
- POSSIBLE: A possible breakout is a stock which has started to breakout(above it's trigger price and resistance area) but has a mixed possibility of continuing higher(no bullish backing).

Breakout Trade Tips

Profit/loss ratios are higher (higher profit potential with tighter stop limits) on Watch Breakout types but they have yet to rally. If one can look at the 3 and 5 day intraday chart one may be able to observe accumulation and enter a position in anticipation of a confirmed breakout. If one does enter a position in anticipation of a breakout and a few days go by without one occuring one should tighten the stop to protect against a pullback.
Confirmed breakouts typically have lower profit/loss ratios (lower profit potential with looser stop limits) but may have a higher probability of continuing higher. One may help prevent false breakouts by looking for strong buying volume on the 3 or 5 day intraday chart (and strong bullish 1 day Moneyflow) during the start of the breakout.
Beware of breakouts with only one day of high volume followed by days of low volume (no follow through). If this occurs tighten the stop to lower loss for a possible false breakout.
Stocks that are overbought may go even higher on a breakout.
Screening for Confirmed breakouts and looking at the type of stocks (and their sectors/industry groups) can reveal where the current strength and money is flowing. Looking at which stocks are up on a down market day can also provide some insight.
The end of a Breakout rally(top) may occur on a day with high volume(high 1 day Moneyflow) but flat price movement.

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